Eqforecast Pre-Sismic Alert

Eqforecast is the application that processes the correlations between the forces of gravitational attraction, exerted by the moon and planets, and the historical seismicity data, at a time and in a place indicated by the user (the model is in continuous improvement), identifying earthquakes potentially precursors of stronger and more dangerous earthquakes for human and animal life.

This APP works for Eqs in Italy and, unlike the others on the market, allows you to receive alerts BEFORE the arrival of a strong shock, because it is not based on the detection of the seismic waves just caused by the earthquake that has already occurred, but on astronomical algorithms and known seismic sequences, which normally they anticipate the seismic trigger of the strongest quake.

Several scientific studies have highlighted the possibility that the gravitational attraction (in particular of the Moon and the Sun) can influence the terrestrial tidal forces and the latter earthquakes. The studies of the EqForecast Research Group introduce new elements, for which the action of the 7 planets of the Solar System (with the exception of Pluto) would also have a role in triggering earthquakes.

The App was conceived with a "scientific" spirit. It allows users to verify these studies and to make their own contribution to research on the interpretation and prediction of earthquakes.

The application constitutes a research and study model of seismic precursors, through which the user can better understand the seismic dynamics in progress.

The application is not yet a validated model for forecasting earthquakes, which, according to scientists, depend on a complex system of factors, which vary from situation to situation, continuously studied by the scientific community.

Once registered and logged in, with the FREE default version the user can view the seismic risk prediction in the 2 dimensions of the seismic risk time and the maximum expected magnitude (Richter) in the App home, but you will not yet be enabled to prediction of the location at risk (possible epicenter), nor upon receipt of sound notifications of pre-seismic alerts.

ALERTS AND LOCATION OF SEISMIC RISK

The functions of receiving pre-seismic sound alerts ("lifesaving" alert) and indicating the potential epicentral location of the future earthquake require the subscription to the BASE or PRO subscription for a fee, but it is possible to take advantage of a trial period of 30 free of charge. days.

The alerts consist of sound notifications directed to your mobile phone which always contain the three dimensions of the seismic risk:

- the "where" (range 30-60 km)

- the "when" (day and time)

- the "how much" (the maximum expected magnitude).

FALSE ALERTS (False positives).

National alert notifications affect a maximum of 5% of the time (therefore in a year at most 18 days) for Mag.> 3.7, of which for the single location the percentage is at most about 50% of that 5%.

THE RELIABILITY OF PRE-SEISMIC ALERTS.

From the experimental evidence, the alerts sent to users located within a radius of 30 km from the epicenter of an earthquake that actually occurred, recorded the following result:

- Eqs ≤ M4.1: reliability <80%

- Eqs> M4.1: reliability ≥ 80%

The alert notification generally arrives 1 hour before the expected earthquake, to give the user time to organize the earthquake protection for himself and his family.

These provisions are not intended to replace the CORRECT PREVENTION PRACTICES for oneself and for one's family issued by the relevant government authorities.

THE SCIENTIFIC BASIS OF THE EQFORECAST APP

The scientific basis that informs the model and the App has been stated on several occasions, over time, in a lot of documentation and presentations during some scientific conferences. Texts and interventions are available on the EqForecast website: https://www.earthquakesforecast.com/.

Stefano Calandra.