Super Bowl Analist

Super Bowl Analist

It’s always important to consider what’s going on in the marketplace when you’re betting on the Super Bowl. Millions of people will be tuning in to Super Bowl 51 this Sunday (6:30 PM ET, FOX), and for many of them, it will be the only wager they make all year.

Meanwhile, sharp bettors are looking at the Xs and Os of Sunday’s matchup between the New England Patriots (16-2 SU, 15-3 ATS) and the Atlanta Falcons (13-5 SU, 12-6 ATS), trying to see if either team has an edge worth exploiting. The Patriots remain 3-point favorites at press time; that means the market sees Super Bowl 51 as roughly a 60/40 flip in New England’s favor. Do the Falcons have some secret sauce that makes them worthy underdogs?

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It’s no secret that Atlanta has the best offense in the NFL. QB Matt Ryan (38 TDs, seven INTs in the regular season) will almost certainly win the MVP award this season, and he’s joined by two talented tailbacks in Devonta Freeman (4.8 yards per carry, 54 catches in the regular season) and Tevin Coleman (4.4 yards per carry, 31 catches in the regular season). Bovada Ryan also has the luxury of throwing to arguably the best wideout in the league, Julio Jones (83 catches, six TDs in the regular season).

The Patriots are very good at run defense, but they’re beatable downfield, and they also seem to have trouble dealing with screen passes to the running backs. This plays into Atlanta’s strengths on offense. If the Falcons air it out on Sunday like they’ve done all season long, the onus will be on Tom Brady and the New England offense to keep up at the other end.

Here’s the Kicker

This is where things get interesting. Brady (28 TDs, two INTs in the regular season) has enjoyed one of his finest seasons yet, four-game suspension notwithstanding. Bovada New England’s running attack has been mediocre, and Brady bovada won’t have TE Rob Gronkowski (herniated disk) to throw to Sunday. That will take some of the pressure off Atlanta’s poor run defense, and make life easier for the secondary, which has performed well against the opposition’s top receivers.

When it comes to special teams, the Patriots and Falcons are about even overall, but Atlanta has one of the NFL’s best kickers in Matt Bryant (34-for-37 on field goals), while New England’s Stephen Gostowski (27-for-32) has been about league-average this season. In a game where three points could decide the winner, that’s another important edge for the Falcons – and maybe enough to put them over the top.