Modinterv Covid-19

The App Modinterv Covid-19 enables the user to generate fits of the COVID-19 epidemic curves from different countries, states and cities. The epidemic curves considered in the App correspond to the total number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 for a given population group. Fitting procedures by three mathematical growth models, namely the q-exponential model (q-exp), the Richards model (RM), and the generalized Richards model (GRM), have been implemented for death curves of countries as well as Brazilian states and cities. The data used to produce fits for countries are fetched from the COVID-19 Data Repository by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University and are updated daily. Data for the Brazilian states and cities are downloaded from the site https://covid19br.wcota.me, maintained by Wesley Cota, from the Federal University of Viçosa, Brazil.

The App allows real-time monitoring of the epidemic curves from different places. The user only has to select the desired location in the menu, and the App shows the results of the respective epidemic curve as well as the fit by the selected mathematical model. The user has the option to select among the three mathematical models mentioned above. The App then shows the curve fit and displays the corresponding parameters of the fit.

The App only does mathematical modeling of epidemic curves. It does not include any health-related information, prevention methods, treatments and medications, or any information related to medicine.

This project has been developed by the Cooperative Research Network on Modelling the COVID-19 Epidemic and Non-Pharmacological Interventions (MODINTERV COVID-19) at the Federal University of Paraná (UFPR), Federal University of Pernambuco (UFPE), and Federal University of Sergipe (UFS), Brazil. The App was developed by Mr. Arthur A. Brum (UFPE) and Prof. Gerson C. Duarte-Filho (UFS), under project coordination by Prof. Giovani L. Vasconcelos (UFPR). More information about our research projects can be found at the webpage of the MODINTERV COVID-19 Network at https://fisica.ufpr.br/redecovid19.

Brief explanation about the mathematical models: the q-exp model is more appropriate for epidemic curves still in the early growth regime, where the parameter r is the growth rate and q<1 indicates a sub-exponential growth, with q=1 corresponding to exponential growth. For intermediate and later stages of the epidemic, the RM and GRM are more suitable; here Tc is the inflexion point and K is the estimated plateau at the end of the epidemic, whereas alpha controls the bending toward the plateau. A complete description of the models can be found, e.g., at https://doi.org/10.1590/SciELOPreprints.690.